Ukrainian-Russian War has been in the limelight and caused fluctuation across different markets. On the bright side, it opens the gate for investing / trading as we can see the surging price of commodities, the sharp decline in EUR/USD etc. In this article, we will dive into political tension between nations and leak alphas from an investing / trading perspective. Read it carefully and do your own research before investing.
Economics vs Politics
For Russia, the Ukrainian-Russian war has more political implications than economic implications, but for European and American countries, economic considerations may be greater than political considerations.Ezreal Kung – Art of Trades
Currently, European and American countries are facing a very serious inflation problem, and Russia is the second and largest exporter of oil and natural gas, respectively. In fact, the EU bars 7 Russian banks from SWIFT but spares those in Energy. Europe and the United States are not going to risk the possibility of soaring inflation and economic recession to impose the most severe sanctions on Russia: an oil embargo or complete withdrawal from the SWIFT system.
As far as Russia is concerned, it is entirely based on political implications, witnessing that Europe and the United States have to protect their own economies, it has become the best time for Putin to attack Ukraine. In the absence of deadly sanctions from Europe and the United States, the most possible follow-up development after the negotiation is that Ukraine promised not to join NATO, or was inclined to procrastinate the war.
With this line of thinking, the oil price and related commodities price surged like wheat as well as the oversold Russia stocks will return to the fundamentals after the fluctuation. Only if Russia further presses and invades the borders of Eastern European countries (Poland, the three small Baltic countries, Moldova, Romania), forcing Europe and the United States to carry out Severe sanctions will have a bigger impact on the global economy.